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Initially, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a resolute position regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After making warnings of "serious repercussions" last August if Vladimir Putin persisted hindering peace discussions, he eventually introduced major penalties on the Russian biggest oil companies, these major energy companies. This decision substantially hindered the Russian leader's ability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, through his recently unveiled comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly drafted by US and Russian representatives without Ukraine's or EU input, Trump has seemingly gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Military Action

This proposal would effectively reward Putin for invading Ukraine while leaving the country's democracy in danger. Despite ringing declarations that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", large portions of the proposal in reality undermine that essential independence. Seen as a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, Trump continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic border issue, implying handing Putin a portion of Ukraine's soil will appease the president. But, Putin's military campaign is not simply about dominating a charred region of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear intention to weaken it so it no longer acts as an appealing example for the Russian people of the democratic government that Putin's growing autocracy prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

Although freezing in status the currently split oblasts of these areas, the initiative would compel Ukraine to surrender the whole this eastern territory. In addition to favoring Russia with land that its forces have been unsuccessful to occupy in exceeding a lengthy period of fighting, this giveaway would make Ukraine's defenses severely weakened.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's well-known "defensive line", the entrenched military defenses that are a key impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, giving Putin a open way to the capital if he eventually decide to resume the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would make future conflict more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their current approximately 800,000 personnel to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's plan sets no equivalent restrictions on the invading army.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to depict the nation's democratically elected leadership as extremists, Trump's plan declares: "All radical ideology and actions must be rejected and forbidden." As if to highlight this element, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a peace deal. However, the proposal sets no condition that Putin jeopardize his regime by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Commitments

To be sure, the proposal makes the Russian Federation commit not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in law its position of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet considering that Putin has violated comparable treaties in the past – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a restoration of occupied areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should we have confidence in this commitment now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on external defense commitments. While the proposal promises a "immediate unified defense action" if the Russian Federation restart its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable defense commitments", the details include fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not just deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit member states from positioning military personnel on the nation's land, thus precluding the reassurance force, reportedly led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Russia from restoring his reduced military, re-equipping, and attacking again.

World Response

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would provide the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "major, deliberate, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the peace and security of the allied countries." This indicates a military response. However unlike a powerful national defense – Ukraine's most reliable protection against renewed invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would hinge on the dedication of Nato leaders, including Trump, to act with force to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not